Quantile serial dependence in crude oil markets: evidence from improved quantilogram analysis with quantile wild bootstrapping

We examine the quantile serial dependence in crude oil prices based on the Linton and Whang’s quantile-based portmanteau test which we improved by means of quantile wild bootstrapping (QWB). Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the quantile wild bootstrap-based portmanteau test performs better than the bound testing procedure suggested by Linton and Whang. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of two crude oil markets – WTI and Brent. We also examine if the dependence is stable via rolling sample tests. Our results show that both WTI and Brent are serially dependent in all, except the median quantiles. These findings suggest that it may be misleading to examine the efficiency of crude oil markets in terms of mean (or median) returns only. These crude oil markets are relatively more serially dependent in non-median ranges.     

我国液态生物质燃料适度发展规模研究——宏观经济视角的分析

本文通过构建简单的总供给一总需求模型,分析石油数量调控政策、潜在产出水平与均衡价格上涨之间的数理逻辑关系,进而间接得到液态生物质燃料适度规模问题的一般分析框架,为进一步的定量分析打下坚实基础。研究结果表明:为达到潜在产出水平和一定的价格上涨水平,不同的现实条件要求政府实行不同的石油数量调控政策。     

海外油气投资目标筛选决策支持系统研究

受全球一体化趋势的影响，油气资源与世界经济、政治、外交和军事的关系更加密切，围绕油气资源展开的国际竞争变得异常激烈。随着不确定外部环境的无序演化，油气安全的影响因素日益复杂。海外油气资源的争夺和中国海外油气资源供给渠道的稳定，需要科学的投资目标筛选决策。基于海外油气投资环境的动态演化和石油公司跨国经营非合作博弈特点，全方位构建了包含动态指标的海外油气目标国家投资环境评价指标体系，运用多层次灰色模型建立了海外油气投资目标筛选模型，通过编程建立和实现其决策支持功能。为系统评估海外油气资源争夺的战略机遇提供了方法借鉴。     

Foreign exchange markets and oil prices in Asia

In this paper, we examine whether oil price can predict exchange rate returns for 14 Asian countries. A new GLS-based time series predictive regression model proposed by Westerlund and Narayan (WN, 2012) is used. The main finding is that higher oil price leads to future depreciation of the Vietnamese dong but future appreciations of the local currencies of Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Hong Kong. A comparison of the widely used Lewellen (2004) and WN (2012) estimators show that both provide similar results in in-sample analysis, although WN is relatively superior at longer horizons in out-of-sample analysis.     

设计质量管理的举措和效益

从质量管理机构设置，质量保证体系的完善，标准宣贯，制度建设，人员配制及培训机制，质量活动形式等方面，详细阐述了江苏设计质量管理的举措，成功经验和收到的成效。     

消费税的调整及燃油税的征收对成品油市场的影响分析

2006年3月21日,财政部、国家税务总局联合下发通知,从2006年4月1日起,对我国现行消费税的税目、税率及相关政策进行调整。与此同时,国家有关部门多次表示燃油税的征收也将适时出台,这些政策的调整将对国内成品油市场产生直接而深远的影响,现就消费税的调整及燃油税的征收对国内成品油市场的影响进行简要分析。     

Profitability and supply price in the US domestic oil industry: implications for the political economy of oil in the twenty-first century

In May 2001, the US Government's National Energy Policy DevelopmentGroup proposed to increase investment in domestic oil resourcesand to diversify further the sourcing of US oil imports by increasingproduction in new petroleum provinces. The paper argues thatboth strands of this policy are dependent upon a third, unstated,objective—to ensure that OPEC retains sufficient marketpower to prevent the sort of collapse in world oil prices thatoccurred in 1998–99. The consequences of that collapse,when the real price of US oil fell to its lowest level in 53years, are explored. Finally, it is argued that the outcomeof the crisis was a rapprochement between OPEC and the US. Itis suggested that the consensus between the US and OPEC as tothe desired range within which the world oil price should moveis likely to survive any temporary political disturbances.     

石油及液体石油产品静态计量技术

介绍了石油静态计量基础知识,包括物理特性、大罐的标定、温度、液位、含水的测量方法,最后给出了标准计算顺序。     

论<石油价格管理办法(试行)>对石油企业节能管理的启示

石油管理办法的颁行,给我国的石油企业的节能管理赋予了新内容,企业进一步深化责任意识,明确《办法》与节能管理的关系,探求节能管理的深化。